Nov 10, 2016 - Seminar

David Wyncoll (HR Wallingford)
National-scale multivariate extreme value analysis for coastal flood risk analysis
Hicks J11, 2pm

Coastal flooding in the UK is driven by the joint occurrence of large waves, winds and sea levels. In order to quantify the flood risk at a single site it is important to study the dependence between these variables in extreme values. The spatial dependence between coastal locations is also important for quantifying the likelihood of single large-scale coastal flooding events. We present a national-scale multivariate extreme value analysis of offshore drivers of coastal flooding in England and Wales. This appropriately captures dependences between both extreme and non-extreme driving variables at and between multiple coastal locations. The output of this analysis is a large Monte Carlo sample of plausible joint events that may be propagated though a chain of emulated numerical models to estimate the risk of large-scale coastal flooding.